Outer London housing demand

Increased pressure on housing delivery in outer London

London borough housing targets, which will form the basis of the draft London Plan, have recently been released. The draft targets add up to almost 66,000 homes per annum to reflect headline findings of the London Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA), a significant increase on the 42,000 set out in the Further Alterations to the London Plan (FALP).

Outer London will need to accommodate a greater share of London’s overall need of 66,000 homes per annum. These boroughs will see the largest increases in raw numbers as well as the largest proportional increases to existing stock. Will current construction models be able to accommodate this increase in capacity? And has the GLA identified enough land to do so? These factors will need to be taken into consideration if London is ever to deliver the 90,000 to 100,000 homes per annum actually needed to tackle affordability in the capital.

The targets demonstrate a shift in pressure to deliver housing from inner London boroughs to outer London boroughs. Many inner London boroughs will see their share of the overall London target reduced. Of the 20 outer London boroughs, only two, Haringey and Barnet, will see a decrease in share of overall London target. Hounslow will see its share in the overall target increase by over 1.5 percentage points, the greatest increase of any borough.

Change in share of overall London target

Source: GLA

The shift towards outer London is equally clear when looking at actual numbers. Almost half of the 13 inner London boroughs will see a decrease in housing targets comparable to those set out in the FALP. Outer London will see an increase across the board with Ealing, Croydon and Newham among the boroughs with a target increase of over 1,500 homes per annum.

Change in annual target

Source: GLA

Boroughs in the east are among those expected to see the greatest levels of additional housing following the changes. Tower Hamlets, Newham and Barking & Dagenham are the three boroughs across London whereby the new targets exceed 3 per cent of existing housing stock. By comparison, a national housing target of 300,000 homes per annum is a 1.1 per cent increase to existing housing stock and, in London, 66,000 is a 2.1 per cent increase to existing stock.

 

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