The Global Financial Crisis

Global Financial Crisis
 
Approach with caution

27 July 2017, by Savills Research

As the effects of the Global Financial Crisis evolve, political and economic uncertainty has created a greater sense of caution in the UK housing market

 

Although this report chiefly focuses on the long-term impact of the Global Financial Crisis, recent economic and political uncertainty has contributed to a noticeable slowdown in rates of house price growth across the mainstream UK housing market.

According to the Nationwide Index, annual house price growth had fallen to just 3.1% by June 2017, from 5.1% a year earlier. Similarly, Halifax put it at 2.6%, down from 8.4% in June 2016.

The RICS Housing Market Survey suggests that numbers of both new buyer enquiries and properties being brought to the market are contracting as buyers and sellers become more cautious. That feeling has been compounded by a slight squeeze on household finances, as inflation outstrips wage growth, and the increased tax burden faced by buy-to-let investors.

The unexpected result of the general election, which has resulted in a hung parliament just as Brexit negotiations commence, means there is little to suggest this picture will change in the short term.

Indications of an interest rate rise in the next six to 12 months will only add to this caution. However, underlying affordability of existing mortgage debt is unlikely to become an issue, so we expect price growth to continue to slow rather than go into reverse.

All of this suggests that we will return to more of a needs-based market during the next two years.

FIGURE 4

Market caution Annual UK house price growth, new buyer enquiries and instructions

 
Figure 4

Source: RICS and Nationwide

 
Mainstream house price growth
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Lucian Cook

Lucian Cook

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Savills Margaret Street

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Chris Buckle

Chris Buckle

Director
Residential Research

Savills Margaret Street

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