Outlook: prepared for what comes next

The road ahead lies out-of-town

Occupational outlook

• The sector's adaptability should remain one of its greatest strengths, while continued occupier diversification will give consumers more reasons to visit, more often.
• Value, convenience and everyday utility will remain highly attractive in an uncertain economic environment.
• The format will align further with the modern consumer: suburban, value-conscious, convenience-driven and increasingly omnichannel.
• A two-speed development landscape is likely to persist across Europe.
• In mature markets, healthy occupier demand will increasingly run up against limited opportunities for new development, placing greater emphasis on evolving existing stock through subdivision, extension, redevelopment and reconfiguration.
• Supply-constrained markets should see further rental growth and increasing scarcity value.
• Well-located, adaptable assets will become ever more strategic and difficult to replicate.

Investment outlook

• Deals signed since October and the current pipeline support expectations of continued investment momentum through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.
• We forecast European retail warehouse investment to reach approximately €8.0–€8.3bn in 2026, representing growth of 2-6% on 2025.
• Value and discount retailers will continue to drive occupational demand, strengthening the sector’s investment appeal.
• Investors will remain selective, favouring assets with credible tenant demand and sustainable income prospects. Occupational performance and local liquidity will continue to shape pricing.
• Spain and Poland are expected to remain priority markets for investors.
• Limited new development in the Netherlands, Sweden and Italy should strengthen the position of well-located existing assets and support pricing.
• Tighter credit conditions will favour buyers with available equity and limited refinancing exposure. Pension funds are expected to remain the leading net buyers.
• We expect cross-border appetite for European retail warehouses to strengthen further.
• Portfolio acquisitions and joint ventures will remain important routes to building scale and accessing larger investment opportunities.

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