Research article

Outlook: prepared for what comes next

Adaptability, consumer relevance and selective scarcity leave retail warehousing well equipped to withstand future headwinds.


The road ahead lies out-of-town

Occupational outlook

  • The sector's adaptability should remain one of its greatest strengths, while continued occupier diversification will give consumers more reasons to visit, more often.
  • Value, convenience and everyday utility will remain highly attractive in an uncertain economic environment.
  • The format will align further with the modern consumer: suburban, value-conscious, convenience-driven and increasingly omnichannel.
  • A two-speed development landscape is likely to persist across Europe.
  • In mature markets, healthy occupier demand will increasingly run up against limited opportunities for new development, placing greater emphasis on evolving existing stock through subdivision, extension, redevelopment and reconfiguration.
  • Supply-constrained markets should see further rental growth and increasing scarcity value.
  • Well-located, adaptable assets will become ever more strategic and difficult to replicate.
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Investment outlook

  • Deals signed since October and the current pipeline support expectations of continued investment momentum through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.
  • We forecast European retail warehouse investment to reach approximately €8.0–€8.3bn in 2026, representing growth of 2-6% on 2025.
  • Value and discount retailers will continue to drive occupational demand, strengthening the sector’s investment appeal.
  • Investors will remain selective, favouring assets with credible tenant demand and sustainable income prospects. Occupational performance and local liquidity will continue to shape pricing.
  • Spain and Poland are expected to remain priority markets for investors.
  • Limited new development in the Netherlands, Sweden and Italy should strengthen the position of well-located existing assets and support pricing.
  • Tighter credit conditions will favour buyers with available equity and limited refinancing exposure. Pension funds are expected to remain the leading net buyers.
  • We expect cross-border appetite for European retail warehouses to strengthen further.
  • Portfolio acquisitions and joint ventures will remain important routes to building scale and accessing larger investment opportunities.

 

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