The Savills Portfolio

Landscope

22 September 2021

The NFU’s new dairy export strategy and Back British Farming day have been overshadowed by headline news on further disruption to agri-food supply chains, following a spike in gas prices that has led to the closure of nitrogen manufacturing plants and a consequential reduction in the availability of carbon dioxide to food processing. 

Michael Gove features heavily in rural issues still: he has been appointed to tackle the UK’s ongoing food supply chain problems, as well as been given leadership of the newly renamed Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (formerly the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). High on his list of priorities should be deciding whether to press on with broad-scale planning reform in England, which this week has been put on the back burner following local opposition in key constituencies, and tackling ongoing issues with nitrate neutrality.      

FOOD & FARMING

Back British farming across the world
Back British Farming day took place on 15 September 2021. It is the NFU’s public-facing campaign to drive support for the British food and farming sector. The NFU focuses on the day as a way to galvanise the public and members of the food and farming sector; it is also intended to engage with policy makers on the future of food and farming. On the day, MPs wore the signature wheatsheaf pin badges and farming champions across the UK used the #BackBritishFarmingDay to highlight their food and farming businesses. NFU president Minette Batters held a question and answer session with Jeremy Clarkson and the NFU launched its new report British Food.: Leading the Way. To coincide with the day, the UK government launched a pack of measures to help boost agri-food exports. Government figures suggest that exports from the UK agri-food sector are worth around £20 billion every year, however only 20% of companies in the sector sell their goods overseas. The measures include appointing more agri-food attachés to act as on the ground representatives in key export markets across the world, the establishment of a Food and Drinks Export Council, and support for farmers to ensure they can benefit from market opportunities. The government has said that the proposals reflect the recommendations from the Trade and Agriculture Commission report and that its full response to the report will be published shortly. 

NFU’s launches new dairy export strategy 
The NFU has launched a dairy export strategy – the case for growing our dairy exports – in which it proposes recommendations to enhance the dairy industry’s export performance and increase value through selling more British products abroad. The report asks that the dairy sector, together with the government, creates a new taskforce to improve and increase dairy exports. The NFU is calling for more government investment in the export potential of the industry, and wants to encourage investment in domestic processing and innovation. Whilst per capita consumption of fresh milk has declined as people are consuming less bottled milk, cheese and yoghurt production has significantly increased in the past decade and are areas in which further domestic production growth is expected. Predictions are for global dairy demand to increase 35% by 2030. Currently 92% of the UK’s dairy exports go to the EU (based on volume) but the NFU believe that going forward the UK should tap into premium export markets – for example 61% of Chinese consumers say they are willing to pay a premium for British produce. 

 

POLICY

Facilitation fund reopens
Defra has announced a sixth round of the £2.5 million Countryside Stewardship Facilitation Fund. The fund encourages collaboration and knowledge sharing amongst farmers and land managers. To apply, groups must submit plans showing how they will work together and share knowledge to protect and enhance their local environment, in line with their local Countryside Stewardship priorities. This year’s fund also includes support for new environmental priorities such as tree planting and shelters and improving air quality through slurry removal. To date, 139 groups have been funded through the Facilitation Fund, with over 3,800 members. This sixth round of funding is expected to invest in over 30 facilitation groups. Applications will be invited from December, with a closing date of 19 January 2022. For more information see here.

Environment Bill passes report stage in House of Lords
The Environment Bill has now completed the report stage in the House of Lords and will have its third reading in the Lords on 13 October 2021. During its progression through this House, a series of amendments have been passed. Of note is an amendment instructing the water industry to take ‘all reasonable steps to ensure untreated sewage is not discharged from storm overflows’, which passed by 184 votes to 147. An amendment tabled by Baroness Bakewell also passed - the amendment was to ‘fix a gap in the pesticide authorisation process which currently omits any assessment on the long-term effects of pesticides on honey bees and omits any assessment of the effects on wild pollinators’. It would prevent any pesticide product from authorisation unless ‘no significant short-term negative effect, and no long-term negative effect’ on the species is demonstrated. The final amendment of note is that the biodiversity metric must be laid before parliament. Further amendments can be made at third reading in the House of Lords, provided the issue has not been fully considered and voted on during either committee or report stage. 

 

ENVIRONMENT & NATURAL CAPITAL

The value of the humble hedge
CPRE has launched a report titled ‘hedge fund’, which outlines the case for investing in hedgerows for climate, nature and the economy. The UK has lost 50% of its hedgerows since the Second World War as they were stripped out in a bid to feed the nation and increase agricultural efficiencies. However, increasing awareness of the benefit of hedgerows as a haven for nature and a site of carbon sequestration means that there is a drive to replant and grow the nation’s network of hedgerows. The Climate Change Committee recommends that the UK’s hedgerow network should be increased by 40% to support the UK’s target of net zero by 2050. CPRE’s report provides an evidence based overview of what impact a 40% increase would have. The analysis found that for every £1 spent on hedgerows, a return of as much as £3.92 can be expected through the biodiversity enhancement, carbon sequestration and small scale woodchip production that the hedgerow enables.  Hedgerows also make a significant cultural contribution to local distinctiveness and sense of place. The report also states that 40% more hedgerows would result in over 25,000 more jobs over a 30 year period for hedgerow planting and maintenance. 

Standard Life buys Highland property
Standard Life Investments Property Income has invested £7.5 million on the purchase of 1,447 hectares of upland rough grazing and moorland in the Cairngorms National Park, as part of its plan to reach net zero emissions. Through the purchase, Standard Life intends to reforest 956 hectares of the property, setting aside 115 hectares for peatland restoration. The rest of the property will be left as open land. These actions are expected to remove 195,630 tonnes of carbon until 2060, which is equivalent to nearly 75% of the company’s residual and operational emissions. The trust stated that it was not investing in commercial forestry, but was buying a ‘gold standard’ carbon offset to support its £350 million real estate portfolio. Standard Life believes that being an early mover in the market for rural assets that assist in decarbonisation will avoid future escalation costs of decarbonisation as well as enhancing its own ESG status with sustainability-minded investors. The news of this purchase echoes the trend of increasing demand from corporate buyers for rural land’s environmental credentials.  

 

PROPERTY & DEVELOPMENT 

Delay to planning reform in England
It has been reported that the government is expected to pause its controversial planning reforms as Michael Gove, the new housing secretary, prepares to meet Conservative MPs who had criticised the forthcoming Planning Bill. The Bill had been set to relax rules on planning permission and has faced fierce criticism from MPs who believe that the Bill risks losing the party seats at the next election, a fear raised after the Conservative loss in the Chesham and Amersham by-election. Reforming the planning system sits high on the government’s agenda, particularly as pressure on the system is increasingly exacerbated by environmental issues such as nutrient neutrality. The problem of nitrate and phosphate pollution in protected areas across the UK is causing blockages to house building in local areas, as planning cannot be approved until nutrient mitigation solutions are in place. Solutions are in short supply and costly. Within the Solent, there are currently seven offsetting schemes in operation, the most high profile of which is a rewilding project on the Isle of Wight. In Somerset, over 11,000 homes are on hold due to phosphate pollution, which is a significant barrier as there are very few known solutions for phosphate mitigation other than creating new wetlands. Interestingly, in the Netherlands, the agricultural sector is the biggest source of nitrogen pollution and as a solution to the problem, the government is proposing compulsory farmer buy outs to convert land to sustainable agriculture. This radical Dutch solution is in sharp contrast to the lack of pollutant mitigation solutions from English planning authorities and Natural England. 

Will heat networks work?
Where are the greatest opportunities for low carbon heat networks in the UK? That is the question the National Comprehensive Assessment (NCA) of opportunity areas for district heating networks in the UK seeks to answer. According to the NCA, approximately 95TWh worth of energy could be produced from heat networks, accounting for 20% of the UK’s total heat demand. In reality, the assessment concedes that this figure is a maximum potential, with local conditions likely differing from UK wide assumptions.

The affordability of heat networks will depend heavily on the future pathway taken by heating fuel sources. If gas was to remain the dominant fuel source, heat networks would perform comparatively well in carbon terms but would be considerably more expensive. Electric solutions would be cheaper and hydrogen-based low carbon heat networks could lead to lower lifetime carbon emissions but would come at a higher net social cost than individual building solutions. The NCA concludes that “efficient district heating networks could play a significant role in the decarbonisation of heat across the UK”. A closer look at the mapping of areas with potential for economically viable heat networks within the report reveals that this is not necessarily the case. While these areas are spread across all of the UK, the opportunity is focused within urban areas such as London, Liverpool, Glasgow and Cardiff, where heat demand density is greatest. The opportunity for rural areas seems to be far lower.

 

Business & Economy

Cabinet reshuffle
The cabinet reshuffle that took place last week saw Michael Gove replace Robert Jenrick as Housing, Communities and Local Government Secretary (Mr Gove has renamed the department to the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities). Stephen Barclay, previously chief secretary to the Treasury, replaces Mr Gove as the new Cabinet Office minster and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster. Despite speculation that George Eustice may be a victim of the reshuffle, he retains his position as Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Liz Truss has been replaced by Anne-Marie Trevelyan as International Trade Secretary, Ms Truss herself has taken over Dominic Raab’s former role of Foreign Secretary. This is the second major reshuffle since Mr Johnson become leader of the Conservative party, the first reshuffle took place in February 2020. 

Savills Global Farmland Index is launched 
According to the Savills Global Farmland Index, global farmland increased in value by 0.2% in 2020, despite significant economic pressures created by the Covid-19 pandemic. Large shifts in currency values go some way to explain the decreases posted by some countries, whilst North America and Western Europe saw small increases. 

Population growth is seen as the main driver for the growth in demand for agricultural productivity in future. However, the ability for land to provide solutions to a range of pressing issues facing society, from reversing the biodiversity crisis to offering carbon sequestration through soil management, could support future land values through differing income streams and new classes of investor targeting the sector. The Savills Global Farmland publication explores the market for soil carbon sequestration, analysing existing schemes from across the globe and identifying observations on this relatively new marketplace. 

Additional £265 million for renewable energy
The government has announced the biggest ever round of its flagship renewable energy scheme. This latest round of support for businesses aims to secure significant additional renewable energy capacity. The Contracts for Difference scheme is the government’s primary method of encouraging investment in low-carbon electricity. It incentivises investment in renewable energy by providing developers of projects with high upfront costs and long lifetimes with protection from volatile wholesale prices. This in turn ensures consumers don’t pay increased costs when electricity prices are high. Within this fourth round of funding, of the total £265 million, £55 million is available for supporting emerging renewable technologies. For the first time since 2015, established technologies, including onshore wind and solar, will also be able to bid. The Government is seeking up to 5GW of capacity from these technologies, with a £10 million budget. This will support investment in all parts of Great Britain, particularly Scotland and Wales. 

 

OTHER RURAL NEWS

Gas price crisis knocks UK food supply chain
A sharp spike in natural gas prices has forced fertiliser plants across the UK to close, driven up consumer energy costs and is threatening the food and heavy industry supply chains. The repercussions of rising natural gas prices are felt far and wide – a by-product of fertiliser production is carbon dioxide which is then used to stun animals before slaughter and used as dry ice in food packing and storage. 60% of the UK’s carbon dioxide supply has been cut. Nuclear power plants and the NHS also use CO2 as a coolant, and take priority over the food sector in terms of CO2 requirements. Online supermarkets such as Ocado have already scaled back delivery of frozen food, due to the shortage of dry ice. The government is undertaking a series of emergency talks to address this supply chain vulnerability, and Defra has said that it is monitoring the matter through regular contact with the food and farming industry. These direct supply chain strains coincide with the Prime Minister appointing Michael Gove as head of the National Economic Recovery Taskforce, a cross-department taskforce will work with suppliers to solve supply chain shortages based on labour disruptions, global supply shortages and Brexit-based border disruption. Boris Johnson has reportedly said he wants to ensure that there are no empty supermarket shelves this Christmas. 

And finally…
Cake mentioned more times than climate change on TV
Data has revealed that in 2020, ‘cake’ was mentioned ten times more often on UK television shows than ‘climate change’. The research also showed that ‘banana bread’ was heard more frequently than ‘wind power’ and ‘solar power’ combined. The report was based on analysis of subtitles from almost 400, 000 programmes from the main TV broadcasters, but did not include news broadcasts.