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Market in Minutes - the Netherlands - Q2 2025

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Read the latest developments in the Dutch real estate market below

The Q2 2025 edition of Market in Minutes – Netherlands outlines a real estate market showing early signs of stabilisation. While domestic political uncertainty and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on sentiment, retail and residential sectors show tangible signs of recovery. Offices remain resilient. Logistics performance softened in the first half of the year but shows upside potential for H2. Investor confidence is gradually improving, supported by declining interest rate volatility, repricing, and large transactions in the pipeline.

Key findings:

  1. Investment volumes stabilise – strong rebound expected in H2: total investment volume in H1 2025 reached €5,8 billion, rising slightly year-on-year, although Q2 investment fell by 24.9% compared to Q2 2024. A rebound is expected in H2, supported by a pipeline of large transactions.
  2. Office market proves resilient despite lower take-up overall: total commercial take-up fell by 31.3% in H1 2025, yet office demand remained stable. Lease extensions gained ground, increasing from 7.3% to 16.2% YoY. Prime office rents continue to face upward pressure, supported by low availability in key submarkets.
  3. Logistics sector under pressure, but outlook improves: occupier and investor sentiment in logistics weakened. Take-up dropped sharply and investment volumes fell by 28.2% YoY in Q2 2025. Vacancy increased slightly to 5.7%. Still, larger deals are in preparation, and the sector may recover in H2 if sellers continue to align with current buyer expectations.
  4. Retail shows a clear recovery: retail vacancy dropped to 5.8%. Demand increased for larger units, particularly among supermarkets and discounters. Retail investment volumes rose by almost 110% in H1 2025, as investor interest returned to well-let assets in high-traffic locations.
  5. Residential remains a safe haven for investors: the residential sector remains attractive due to persistent housing shortages, low vacancy, and continued societal concern. With pricing under pressure in other sectors, capital is shifting back to residential. Prime yields remained stable at 3.40%.
  6. Economic outlook steady with strong domestic drivers: GDP is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026. Inflation is forecast to decline to 2.6% in 2026. Cumulative wage growth since January 2023 reached 13.4%, which continues to support household spending.
  7. Lower interest rate volatility supports re-entry into the market: interest rate volatility has decreased. Prime yields held steady (offices 4.40%, retail 3.75%, logistics 4.75%), but spreads between core and secondary assets have widened. Assets with short WALT, vacancies or capex needs are being priced with increasingly higher yields.
  8. Political uncertainty and spatial bottlenecks remain key risks: the fall of the Schoof government has left issues related to nitrogen legislation, electricity grid congestion, and housing supply unresolved. Nevertheless, appetite for well-located, resilient assets is growing, especially where repricing has already taken place.