Find out about the trends and outlook for the commercial property investment market in France in 8 key points.
- Uncertainties are accumulating and the economic climate is clearly tense, with the prospect of growth in France being reduced to 0.8% in 2025.
- However, it is in this gloomy economic environment that the French investment market seems to be emerging from its torpor, with a continuous acceleration of transactional activity, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2024.
- Office assets, which had fallen out of favour, are benefiting from a clear resurgence of interest from investors - a resurgence that should continue with the future realisation of major deals. This is essential in terms of the dynamism of the volumes invested, as the office segment constitutes a considerable reservoir of activity due to its depth.
- Activity on the trading assets is also showing signs of a revival, with an increase in the volumes invested at the end of the year 2024.
- The reopening of the French market to international trade is confirmed. The share of international buyers has in fact risen to 51% of the volumes invested in 2024 (compared with 36% a year earlier). Such an opening bodes well in terms of market depth and activity.
- The stabilisation of rates of return is also being confirmed. This is indisputable for prime assets (4.25% for offices in the CBD, 5.75% for retail parks in the Ile-de-France region and 4.75% for warehouses near Paris or Lyon), but it is also gaining ground for riskier assets. A new set of values is being established - an essential condition for a recovery in activity.
- The French investment market thus seems capable of once again reaching the 20 billion euro mark by the end of 2025. The improvement would be significant after the two years of (very) low water that we have just experienced, but it should be emphasised that such a result would remain modest from a historical point of view: it will not be until 2026 that we return to a more ‘normal’ market format.
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