Arable

October 2026

• Harvest 2026 has proven to be another highly variable season, with wheat, spring barley and oat yields falling below historic averages across much of the UK. The impact of prolonged dry conditions was highlighted in AHDB’s 2026 Harvest Survey, with average winter wheat yields down 11% on the five-year average. Reported yields ranged from 3.9t/ha to 11.5t/ha, with farms further north benefiting from increased rainfall.

• Oilseed rape emerged as the strongest performing crop of the season, averaging 19% above the five-year average at 4t/ha, although once again, there was significant regional variation.

• UK feed wheat futures have come under pressure from weaker global grain markets, with November 2026 contracts falling by £4/t to close at £205.75/t on 25 September. This marks a dip below the 20-day moving average, largely driven by geopolitical factors, including the possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine and subsequent increased Russian export capacity.

• Winter crop drilling is well underway, with crops largely going into well-prepared, albeit dry, seed beds. Oilseed rape crops are facing renewed pressure from cabbage stem flea beetle, following two relatively easy years, with later-drilled crops proving particularly vulnerable. High pest pressure is thought to be heightened by dry conditions and mild autumn temperatures.

• In Scotland, harvest is drawing to a close, with potato lifting progressing well and generally delivering reasonable yields. Encouragingly, autumn drilling has got off to a positive start, with oilseed rape, fodder crops and cereals being established in good seedbeds and emerging well due to favourable conditions.

View full Food & Farming update here