The right charge, the right place: how to deploy robust EV charging infrastructure

Key factors that influence local demand

Socioeconomics and EV ownership 

As a first step it is important to have a baseline understanding of the factors that affect current EV ownership. Demand is shaped by local socioeconomic factors such as household income, vehicle ownership rates, commuting habits and housing type.

Future demand will evolve, so anticipating the local growth rate of EV adoption is essential. We have developed a specialised model that uses localised information to forecast future EV ownership at the Output Area level, representing the smallest geographical unit in UK census data. The model integrates factors such as population growth, projections of EV sales (both new and used), in addition to various industry trends.

Consumer behaviour and dwell times 

The next question is whether fast chargers or slow chargers would be more appropriate. Grasping consumer behaviour is essential for this decision. Important factors to consider are dwell time (the average time a vehicle stays parked), range anxiety (the concern of depleting the battery), and the necessity for dependable, easily accessible charging options. Two user categories must be considered:

Technical and commercial factors

With an understanding of the number of EVs and the required charger mix (fast or slow), the final stage is to estimate the number of charge points required and the project's feasibility. The following factors have proven to be important from a technical and commercial perspective:

• Charger-to-EV ratio: The International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests an optimal ratio of one public charger for every 10 EVs. While this 10:1 ratio is a useful benchmark confirmed by our case studies, the optimal ratio varies by location and should be determined on a case-by-case basis through utilisation and financial modelling.

• Competitive landscape and net demand: Existing infrastructure must be subtracted from demand assessments. Platforms such as Zapmap provide data on current charger locations. Furthermore, it is vital to account for future competition. Is the local council pursuing LEVI (Local Electric Vehicle Infrastructure) funding? What are the expansion plans of major private CPOs in the area? Are there any other market disruptors on the horizon? How does planned pricing compare to provision by others?

• Practical constraints: Finally, the project must be commercially and technically robust. A thorough evaluation should include leasing and operational costs, as well as a critical assessment of the site's ability to secure a reliable and sufficient power supply from the grid.

Conclusion

The effective rollout of EV charging infrastructure is informed by effective modelling. Success hinges on moving beyond broad statistics to analyse local socioeconomic drivers, differentiate between residential (slow charging) and commercial (fast charging) use cases, and rigorously appraise the technical and financial viability of each site. This data-driven approach ensures every charger installed meets a verified need, maximising utilisation and providing a sustainable return on investment.

The challenges are significant, but with the right data and analytical tools, there is potential to make good progress.

Further information

Contact Sabil Chaudhry or Bobby Barfoot