Spotlight | Prime London & Country

London and Country
Prime London & Country

26 September 2017, by Katy Warrick

Making sense of uncertainty

This time last year, we published our five-year price forecasts for the prime housing markets with the information available to us at the time – which, given the recent referendum, was very little. Our forecast then was for two years of no growth followed by a bounce back, before returning to the long-term trend rate at the end of the five-year period.

If 2016 was tough to forecast, 2017 is equally challenging. The political landscape looks even less clear, with Theresa May holding a minority government, a US administration seemingly in chaos, and the complexity of Brexit becoming much more apparent.

 

In her market overview, Kirsty Bennison delves into new data from TwentyCi which shows how price sensitive the prime market has become as a result. However, the overwhelming evidence is that where sellers have realistic expectations on price the market is active.

Yolande Barnes and Lucian Cook have taken up the challenge of forecasting what happens next in prime central London, building in a further period of uncertainty post-Brexit and looking at how longer-term drivers for growth compare to those of the past.

What these two articles tell us is that prime property sentiment is fragile, but London has not ground to a halt. Prime London may not be able to maintain the stellar growth trajectory of 1979 to 2014, but it retains its time zone, language and cultural offerings, which underpin its status as the world’s business hub. And, as Mat Oakley, our head of commercial research, points out, there have been some big votes of confidence in the London market, despite Brexit.

We are also including updated forecasts for the prime regions outside London, where buyers can get at least twice the square footage for their money compared with prime central London.

The stop-start nature of the ripple effect is likely to persist for a little longer, but the platform is set for a renewed flow of wealth between London, its commuter zone and beyond.

In the meantime, the expectation of a price-sensitive market means buyers and sellers will need to continue to keep their feet on the ground.


Eight at-a-glance facts you need to know about the prime market

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Summary

Articles from Spotlight: Prime London & Country – Autumn 2017

Precision pricing

26 September 2017

Precision pricing

The prime market remains price sensitive, but it’s far from dormant. Realistic pricing is key

The fourth phase

26 September 2017

The fourth phase

Since 1979, the performance of central London’s prime residential real estate has been underpinned by three influential phases. Now, against a backdrop of political and economic uncertainty, we assess its prospects as the market enters a fourth phase

The million pound questions

26 September 2017

The million pound questions

Owning a property worth £1 million or more was once the reserve of an elite group. But, with rising prices over the past 10 years, many more homeowners across the country have joined the club

More country, more space

26 September 2017

More country, more space

The number of people moving out of London continues to rise, taking the capital’s housing wealth to more affordable and spacious locations

The impact of Brexit

26 September 2017

The impact of Brexit

Mat Oakley discusses the impact of Brexit on London’s commercial market and assesses the resilience of the city’s diverse employment sectors in the face of an uncertain future

It's all in the detail

26 September 2017

It

Here we look at five micro-trends in the residential rental market that the broad averages conceal

The alternative reality of new build realty

Are we heading into new territory for the prime London residential development market, as alternative uses serve to mitigate over-supply and buyers at the top end of the market change nature?

Living the high (retirement) life

During the next 20 years, the number of over-65s in London will grow by 65%, making it the fastest-growing age group

 
 

Key contacts

Lucian Cook

Lucian Cook

Director
Residential Research

Savills Margaret Street

+44 (0) 20 7016 3837

 

Yolande Barnes

Yolande Barnes

Director
World Research

Savills Margaret Street

+44 (0) 20 7409 8899

 

Mat Oakley

Mat Oakley

Director
Commercial Research

Savills Margaret Street

+44 (0) 20 7409 8781

 

Katy Warrick

Katy Warrick

Director
Residential Research

Savills Margaret Street

+44 (0) 207 016 3884

 

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