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27 July 2010
Birmingham City University student wins top Savills prize
Birmingham City University student Hannah Ainsworth has won a cash prize sponsored by the Savills Birmingham office for her final year art project, presented ...

20 July 2010
Children's charity takes space in Ossett
A private client, represented by Savills, has let 170 Dewsbury Road, Ossett to the National Children's Centre.

20 July 2010
New deal at Clarendon House, Harrogate
Fortlands Ltd, represented by Savills, has let Unit G2 & G3 at Clarendon House, Harrogate to Adams Tebb (Ilkley) Ltd.

16 July 2010
Residential land market becomes ever more polarised but shows real signs of recovery in south
Competition for development land is at last boosting development land values, but a real gulf is emerging between small sites in high demand housing markets, ...

28 June 2010
Prime London price growth stalls but rental growth points to an investment opportunity
Prime central London residential property price growth has slowed almost to zero over the past three months, a dramatic slowdown after four consecutive quarte...

22 June 2010
Capital gains tax, beginning to level the playing field between individual and corporate investors
Yolande Barnes, Head of Residential Research at property adviser, Savills, comments on the changes to CGT announced in today's Budget:

22 June 2010
Capital gains tax changes may skew farmland market
The Chancellor has at last put us out of our misery following the speculation on how he is going to balance the books. A carefully crafted budget has allowed ...

18 May 2010
Union Investment to sell city of London landmark
Savills has brought 10 Gresham Street, London EC2 to the market on behalf of Union Investment Real Estate GmbH for a price in the region of £180 million, refl...

14 May 2010
Savills announce prime residential Manhattan association US buyers in the UK up 65% from 2008
International property advisors, Savills, has formed a new residential association with New York real estate agents Stribling & Associates - one of the city's...

20 July 2010
Environment minister to launch enhanced greenhouse gas calculator at the CLA game fair
The impact of environmental stewardship schemes on a farm's greenhouse gas balance can now be calculated after the enhancement of a tool which measures GHG em...

20 July 2010
Deals hat trick at Brunswick Centre, Scarborough
The Prudential Assurance Company Ltd, advised by the Retail team, has let Unit 28, 17 and 11 in the Brunswick Centre, Scarborough to GB & BM Walker, Putting o...

20 July 2010
New tenant takes the works at 4 Market Place East, Ripon
Ogden Waller Properties LLP, represented by Savills, has let 4 Market Place East Ripon to The Works Stores Ltd.

20 July 2010
Red hot new letting at the Avenue, Alwoodley
A private client, represented by Savills, has let 4-6 The Avenue, Alwoodley to a private occupier trading as Red Pepper.

19 July 2010
Rating experts join Savills for 2010 revaluation
Savills has recruited rating experts Sean Bunch and Ben Monk to work in its Finsbury Circus office in the City of London.

19 July 2010
Swiss Life secures 2010's second biggest leasing transaction in Levallois Perret
Swiss Life has taken a lease at Vasco de Gama, 133 / 149 rue Victor Hugo in Levallois Perret's, representing the second largest leasing deal in the business d...

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28 April 2008

Savills Issues Revised Residential Market Forecast

Savills Research has today issued a revised forecast for the property market anticipating total falls of 6% over two years, provided the Bank of England takes all necessary steps to halt the credit crisis.

Unlike other forecasters, Savills believes the current credit constraints, rather than affordability issues, to be the major downward pressure on the property market.

  • The company's central forecast remains for a -4% fall in mainstream market values in 2008, and a further -2% fall in 2009
  • However, this scenario assumes the impact of the credit crisis is primarily restricted to the financial sector.
  • The probability of a flat market in 2008 is now zero and Savills says homeowners are relying on the Bank of England to exercise pressure and make available further funds as necessary to ease the mortgage situation and ensure the market does not decline further
  • If preventative action is not taken and the impact of the credit crisis is more widely felt, there is a significant risk of greater falls in value in the housing market
  • A worst case forecast would predict a 10% fall in mainstream market values in 2008 and a further 15% in 2009 if general consumer confidence continues to weaken and the economic impact of the current credit squeeze is more widely felt.
  • Such falls would though make a bounce back in the next few years more likely.
  • All areas of the residential property market other than the super prime market will be affected; in the super prime market there continues to be a shortage of property, no dependency of mortgages and strong competition for the very best.


The Savills Research model also anticipates a rapid recovery, particularly in the case of the worst case property scenario, with surplus household income recovering quickly. A full recovery in property values is therefore forecast by 2012 at the very latest, with property remaining a strong investment.

Yolande Barnes, Director, Savills Research, comments, "The Bank's recent £50 billion bond swap initiative has an awful lot riding on it. Our current forecast of -6% to the end of 2009 can only be achieved if we see decisive action from the Bank of England to ensure normality returns to the mortgage market. A failure on their part could have very serious consequences for the national housing market and economy in general."

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CONTACT INFORMATION

For further information please contact

Yolande Barnes, Director Savills research
+44 (0)20 7409 8899
ybarnes@savills.com

Louise Rose Savills press office
+44 (0)7967 555817
lrose@savills.com


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